How have people come to be taken in by The Phenomenon of Man? We must not underestimate the size of the market for works of this kind, for philosophy-fiction. Just as compulsory primary education created a market catered for by cheap dailies and weeklies, so the spread of secondary and latterly tertiary education has created a large population of people, often with well-developed literary and scholarly tastes, who have been educated far beyond their capacity to undertake analytical thought.

- Sir Peter Medawar

Richard Dawkins’ latest book, The Greatest Show on Earth: The Evidence for Evolution, mentions Peter Medawar’s legendary review of The Phenomenon of Man with alacrity in detailing how otherwise fairly educated people use farcical logic like, “If chimps evolved into us, how come there are chimps still around?”

Alas, Medawar’s hypothesis seems to be as true today as then, and it’s getting worse (and is pervasive in politics, as well). To paraphrase a statement Dawkins made during his last Houston stop with the Progressive Forum a few weeks ago, “It’s truly astounding how otherwise intelligent, rational people who go about their daily life, balancing their checkbook and the like, cease to exercise any critical thinking about the greatest questions . . . it’s a tragedy, really . . . it seems, particularly in the U.S., that about 40% of the population is carrying along the other 60% in moving humanity forward.” Or in light of the current political season, perhaps it’s just shy of 47%.

Sir Peter Medawar (February 28, 1915 – October 2, 1987) was  a British zoologist received the Nobel Price in Physiology for his work on the human immune system and graft rejection. His discovery of acquired immune tolerance helped make organ transplants possible.

Bookmarks

Let’s start with the dictionary definition:

Read it over. Carefully. Especially read the first definition. Not limited to or by established, traditional, orthodox, or authoritarian attitudes, views, or dogmas; free from bigotry.

Read it again. THAT is what being liberal is all about. It is ruthlessly independent. Not trying to apply the same policies and ideas to differing situations and different contexts. Different realities require different approaches.  This is the core of being liberal. Being liberal is not about “big government” or “welfare society” or anything like that. It is not about confusing correlation with causation. It is not about using rhetoric and divisive labels to plant prejudicial narratives in people’s minds. After all, there is nothing inherently bad about big government any more than there is something inherently bad about a large gun; though, to be honest, I still don’t know what the hell big government means any way. To me it’s kind of like saying, “Big football is bad. Big companies are bad.” Uh, sure. It’s intellectually dishonest and lazy. It’s pandering. How easy it is to paint such a broad stroke and completely discount the human element within. How easy it is to ignore the complexities of reality, of systems, of chaos, and simply say it’s all bad because it’s easier that way. Instead, what being liberal is about is doing what works given the situation. It’s about critically thinking about issues in context, applying analysis and some semblance of scientific method where appropriate, and crafting policy to put action behind the hypotheses derived from those activities.

Dogma is this: you have a square peg. There may be a square hole, in which case you’re in good shape. You may have a round hole, in which case you still try to fit the square peg through it. In case that doesn’t work, you take some C4 and blow a big enough hole so you can insert the square peg. This epitomizes GOP thinking. It’s all about laissez faire, no government, no regulation, the market is divine arbiter of all things good, blah blah blah all the time, no matter what is happening in the world around them. Being liberal is to say, “Hey, we like the Friedman school of economics so long as it applies to the macroeconomic realities surrounding it.” BUT, when you have zero percent interest rates and economic stagnation and a domino effect of economic collapse going on, you dust off the book from the Keynes school and start applying the lessons learned there. It’s balanced. It’s not about big vs. small government or any of that, so much as conservatives love to play those frames over and over and over again. It’s about doing what’s required given the situation. Finis.

Tuam libera mentem.

Bookmarks

The full video of the interview on David Letterman is posted below for your viewing. I’ve taken the liberty to paste the main points from the interview verbatim, with emphasis added to especially important narratives. His points are the same points I would make in debating about what needs to be done with US energy policy, specifically as this country’s biggest mandate and wealth creation industry for the 21st century. It doesn’t matter if you believe in climate change or not (though if you don’t you possibly also believe the Earth is 4,000 years old, but I won’t get into that here). It is an economic and security imperative at this point that we take charge and lead the way or suffer the fate of becoming a second rate power.

Dave (concerning letting the nation know the seriousness of climate change): “We need people coming out here screaming . . . . we need somebody to knock people over and jump up and down on their chest.”

Thomas: “[Republican's] mantra is drill baby, drill . . . what I’ve been saying to them is  . . . we’re on the eve of [the energy technology] revolution . . . on the eve of that revolution, to be saying, ‘drill, baby, drill’ is like saying on the eve of the IT revolution, . . . ‘I want more carbon paper . . . more IBM typewriters’ . . . hello?”

Dave (in discussing the Government’s role): “Maybe I’m wrong, maybe we don’t need leadership in this country, in the white house, maybe we don’t need a national political mandate.”

Tom: “We do.”

Dave: “Until we look at this like a national problem . . . this country always wants to be a world leader, why aren’t we leading the world at this?”

Thomas: “And why do we need government? Why, you are right we need a leader, because . . . leaders write the rules, they shape the market . . . what we need is a price signal, ok, a price on carbon, a price on gasoline, that says to the American marketplace, which is the greatest innovation engine in the world, go out and invent the alternatives and you’ll get rich. So we get 100,000 people trying 100,000 things in 100,000 garages, 100 of which will be promising, ten will be great and two will become the next green Microsoft and green Google.”

Dave: “Will either of these guys [presidential candidates] do it?”

Thomas: “Certainly if you listen to them today, they aren’t preparing the public for that. Everyone’s ready to say, ‘I’m going to throw this amount of money at it’ . . . but it really isn’t, Dave, about throwing money at it. It’s triggering the innovative prowess of this country that gave us the IT revolution. That’s what we need for the ET revolution. Now if we don’t do it . . . this is the next great economic revolution, the next great industry . . . the country that leads that is going to have the higher standard of living, the most economic security, the most national security, which part of that sentence don’t people understand?”

Dave: “And to a great affect will solve our current economic problems . . . . it’s not an overnight kind of a deal, it will contribute greatly to making things much better economically. Why can’t we get a guy smart enough . . . to say ‘by god, here’s how it’s going to be different, and I’m the guy that’s going to make it different, and I’m going to lead the world, and I’m going to save the planet’?”

Thomas: “What if you were . . . one of those members of congress who came out and said, ‘we need a carbon tax, we need gasoline tax, we need the right standards, we’ll offset it on people’s payroll’ and then your opponent says, ‘there’s my opponent . . . [who] never saw a tax he didn’t like’ . . . here’s what I would say, ‘let’s get one thing straight pal, we’re both for a tax, because we’re being taxed right now by Saudia Arabia, Iran, Nigeria, Russia; I just prefer that my taxes go to the US treasury to build US schools, US roads, US highways.  . . . It’s just a little tick I have  . . . that I like my taxes to go to my country.  . . . if you can’t win that debate, you don’t belong in politics.”

Dave: “Would that work as a stump speech . . . in a debate?”

Thomas: “I believe this issue is like civil rights and women’s suffrage . . . the public are ahead of the politicians. . . . [the public] will take a lot of pain on this if they think you have a real plan, and it’s equitable . . . and it’s a plan not just about energy, but about nation building in America. This is the key to propelling our country into the 21st century, not into the 19th century with drill, baby drill . . . if it’s a hoax . . . everything we would do to prepare ourselves for climate change would make us more respected, more innovative, more competitive, more entrepreneurial.”

Here is the video:

Bookmarks

To: Senators Kay Bailey Hutchison & John Cornyn
RE: Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act

The Senate is scheduled to debate and vote on the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act the first week of June.

As a citizen of Texas, a technology entrepreneur, a co-founder of one of Houston’s first Internet service providers, a veteran of the armed forces, and a current real estate professional, I urge you to seize this historic opportunity and pass this bill.

Here are five compelling reasons to act now:

1. The political opportunity is ripe. 78% of Americans want Congress to act on global warming. We need to take advantage of the tremendous momentum that exists today.
   • Building a domestic renewable energy supply that weans us from a mostly foreign, Middle-Eastern oil supply should be a national security imperative.
   • Carbon emission caps also address a very important LOCAL concern in Houston – our notorious air toxicity and ozone (exacerbated by CO2 and other heat-rapping gases).
2. This isn’t an issue with whether or not you agree with global warming – this is an economic issue now of producing domestic, cleaner energy and spurring technology investment in Texas beyond oil and gas – gas prices are out of control and we need more choices for energy. However, every year we wait equals extra effort. If we delay this bill by just two years, we will have to make twice the annual cuts in carbon emissions to hit the same cumulative reductions by 2020.
3. Someone is going to win the global race to create competitive cleaner energy. Houston and Texas can benefit, with effective leadership, from this growing consensus. Renewable energy promises to become one of the world’s most profitable industries – Japan and Germany already are ahead of us. But advances in renewable energy technologies will not be fully realized without a national cap on global warming pollution – almost every clean-energy entrepreneur agrees with this statement that has been interviewed. Refuse to act and most of the entrepreneurship will go to Silicon Valley just like in 1995 when I was starting Houston’s first large Internet services provider. Please don’t become complicit in a technology brain-drain from Texas 10 years out.
4. The science is unforgiving. As the Earth warms, we approach a “tipping point,” after which large destructive climate changes become inevitable. This is a scientific consensus (like tobacco smoke causes lung cancer) – I am frankly not interested in whether or not policy analysts or members of Congress agree with this consensus or not, especially when it comes to my planet and health.
5. What legacy will the 110th Congress and you leave for Texas? When future generations look back at this moment, they will either praise you and the Senate for starting us down the path to solving the global warming crisis, or blame you and the Senate for squandering this opportunity. If you fail to vote, you stand to put us right back to the 1980’s in Texas while the rest of the nation moves ahead. You have an opportunity to make us a leader in the energy future of America, or to allow us to decline when oil production drops off. It will happen – history is famous for repetition.
6. Finally, have you read Earth: The Sequel: The Race to Reinvent Energy and Stop Global Warming by Fred Krupp? What amazes me as a business leader and entrepreneur is his complete embrace of markets – with smart and effective federal leadership – to solve the problem, based on case studies and diligent research. What are you doing to secure Texas in this new emerging energy markets? Please vote FOR the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act when it comes to a vote in June.

Erik Fowler
Houston, TX

Bookmarks

So, you ask, “what exactly is this war on economics you’re taking about and how do I join the fight?” Well, a perfect, timely example of this is John McCain‘s proposed fuel “tax holiday” with the presumed goal of stimulating the economy while taking some of the bite out of high gas prices. Right. Let’s take a closer look at this proposed legislation, shall we?

The idea is this: we’ve got this giant sucking sound out of people’s wallets with $4 per gallon gasoline, particularly hurting the average, red blooded, good, hard working, god-fearing ‘murican who is driving a 4 ton land yacht. Compounding the issue for this good, middle class ‘murican, is that he (she of course is a stay at home mom, cleaning the floors and putting dinner on the table) lives three states away from work and has to commute for 4 hours each way, giving him even more time to listen to angry, sex-deprived, white men like himself rant on “talk” radio about the fact that it takes so much money to fill up their land yachts and how it’s all the fault of illegal immigrants and communist liberals (especially given the audacity of said latte drinkers to demand things like safety belts, catalytic converters, and bumpers!). They want relief damn it (I’m not talking about from their enlarged prostate here either)!! So, what better than to put a moratorium on federal taxes on gasoline, which amounts to $0.184 per gallon for passenger vehicles and $0.24 per gallon for trucks (the real kind that hauls freight, not your neighbor’s gilded Cataract Escapade).

To see the wisdom of this wonderful idea, let’s first determine what useless entitlements these federal taxes fund. The proceeds go into the highway trust fund to fund infrastructure such as highways, levees, and bridges, which we all know are in completely perfect shape; perfectly omnipotent market forces or the sins of residents of course explain things like Katrina and the Minneapolis bridge collapse, so why waste money on those things? Since we’re in agreement that the US Government has no business interfering in free markets by working on roads and the like, let’s go ahead and see what economic benefits are derived from this wonderful tax holiday.

The first awesome benefit to be derived from the tax holiday is to make refiners and oil companies richer! This is perfect and in accordance with Reaganomics (who undoubtedly is looking down from Peter’s right shoulder and uttering, “it is good.”). How does this ingenious plan accomplish this, you ask. In several ways. First, Americans drive more during the period in which the holiday would be in effect (i.e., summer), creating more demand. Refining capacity is a constant, constricting supply, resulting in increased prices at the pump. Second, a tax holiday may in fact spur good, flag lapel pin wearing ‘muricans into patriotically driving their land yachts rather than other means of travel (or staying home). This increases the demand for gasoline even more, escalating prices. So the net effect is that in all likelihood has prices at the pump would climb back to what they were pre-tax holiday, and adding the difference straight to oil refinery‘s profits. Brilliant!

The next economic benefit is to further mortgage the country since the revenue lost from the tax (not to fund silly entitlements like highway improvements, construction jobs or clean air, but more important things like invading more sovereign nations not run by angry white Christian men) would have to be added to the deficit, likely resulting in the shortfall being borrowed from foreign investors. We can just add this to shortfalls from things like the sub-prime mortgage success, which resulting from eliminating pesky government interference of predatory lending practices (a perfectly moral thing in a free market, right?).

“Wait a minute!” you say. “What about a windfall profit tax excised on oil companies to make up the shortfall?” This was proposed by Hillary Clinton (McBush presumably taking money instead from welfare earmarks such as education and healthcare). This is a great idea! In fact, it falls in perfectly with the other economic benefits listed above. Ronald Reagan, if alive, might leap for joy and secretly vote for Hillary in fact. Companies who will derive no marginal benefit from increased sales due to a windfall tax will of course further restrict supply to result in the optimum mix of revenue/profits such that they would yield the same profits by selling less gasoline. This reduced supply fits in perfect with the above formulas in pushing up prices, yielding no revenue benefit for the government, forcing it again to look elsewhere to make up the shortfall.

So, we continue in good King George Bush fashion with this plan, by decreeing the laws of nature and to hell with nonsensical things such as facts. This is perfectly in alignment with other brilliant Republican strategies, including but not limited to, privatizing Social Security, boundless free trade agreements, pushing abstinence as the sole means to address teen pregnancy, eliminating terrorism by pissing off as many people in the world as possible, and preaching good wholesome science like intelligent design in the classroom.

And my eyes were already welling up with tears from the loss of Premier W. It is good to see that we still have ‘publicans willing to fight the good fight for the constitutional right to have a moron for President. It also shows once again that Senator Obama seems to be the only candidate with the “temerity” to actually critically think complex things (like reality) through rather than take every opportunity to pander to voters.

Bookmarks

Now talking on #PennsylvaniaPrimary

<davewiner> Thanks to @adarg for the reminder

<davewiner> @adamrg

<maslowbeer> ah good fun all tweeps!

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<maslowbeer> there we go

<agessaman> excellent

<GabeW> let the wonkery begin!

* GabeW read davewiner’s tweet as “wankery” and I showed up anyway

<BIGZIPZ> many of us in Britain are shocked at how both candidates conduct themselves, it seems all about smear tactics and personal attacks! meanwhile the

republican candidate is free to travel all over america talking about what he will do while the dems bicker

<davewiner> joe scarborough is a first class dickhead

<agessaman> Time to over-analyze the 2200 votes that have been counted.

<davewiner> gabew, wankery is good too

<davewiner>

<agessaman> BIGZIPZ: we’re shocked and appalled here too

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<davewiner> when joe scarborough comes on I switch to wolf blitzer

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<BIGZIPZ> I swaer the pr people hired in these campaigns could find faults with Mother Terasa and good things to say about Hitler if it was part of their

brief

<davewiner> i’ll even watch a dog food commercial over joe scarborough

<dunnix> Hello all

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<davewiner> i’d watch hitler over scarborough

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<GabeW> man, twitter must be working

<BIGZIPZ> twitter effect

<EricaJoy>

<berryhill> would you watch Fox News over scarborough?

<davewiner> i would watch fox news over scarborough

<agessaman> davewiner: Hitler was evil… but at least he could deliver a line without Scarborough’s smirk…

<GabeW> its sort of tradition now – davewiner calls out an irc channel when the returns start coming in

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<GabeW> on primary nights

<GabeW> I’d watch fox news with the volume set to 0

* dunnix would watch kernel 2.6.25 compile over Scarborough…. in fact he _is_.

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<davewiner> 1 percent of precincts reporting. clinton 60 percent, obama 40 percent

<BIGZIPZ> I take it this Scarborough is some terrible anchorman or something?

<RussB> I had to type that damn channel name in as FF didn’t talk to Pidgin for some reason. Was “vote08″ taken or something?

<GabeW> dunnix: um, I’d watch 2.6.25 compile over *most* tv

<davewiner> no returns from philadelphia yet

<dunnix> =P

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<davewiner> as a new yorker i always had great disdain for philadelphia

<agessaman> BIGZIPZ: he’s just smug, smarmy, and more of a ‘personality’ than a journalist

<davewiner> not tonight

<davewiner> i love philadelphia

<davewiner> we call it “philly”

<maslowbeer> it’s like a virtual tweetup. how fun!

<davewiner> those of us who love philadelphia

<danyork> Thanks for setting up the room, Dave.

<codyh> only when Chris Matthews is on camera am I glad that I don’t get MSNBC in HD.

<davewiner> give me some cheesesteak please

<BIGZIPZ> dave the tweet is linking to ###PennsylvaniaPrimary instead of #PennsylvaniaPrimary for some reason

<davewiner> go phillies!

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<davewiner> oooh

<domesticat> Haven’t had a good cheesesteak in years.

<maslowbeer> the word philly is making me hungry

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<danyork> The URL worked fine for me

<agessaman> Just don’t ask for it with swiss.

<BIGZIPZ> this is in mirc anyway

<EricaJoy> mirc?

<BIGZIPZ> irc client

<EricaJoy> yeah i know

<EricaJoy> just thinking how long its been since i’ve used it

<EricaJoy>

<davewiner> did i fix the irc link?? http://www.scripting.com/stories/2008/04/22/ircForPennsylvaniaPrimary.html

<BIGZIPZ> its no longer free!

<davewiner> best line of the night — bill clinton is not a pip, he’s gladys knight

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<EricaJoy> oh boooooo

<EricaJoy> clinton is the projected winner

<EricaJoy>

<tmanternach> hey all. what channel are people watching? I’m watching CNN

<domesticat> CNN.

<EricaJoy> msnbc for me

* agessaman is shocked… really…

<agessaman> CNN, with commercial breaks spent swearing at FoxNews.

<agessaman> (It’s the closest I get to aerobic exercise on election night.)

<codyh> are you kidding me! MSNBC calling the primary with 3% in?

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<kirkk> didn’t expect a win… really hope that her win is small…. < 10 points would be nice

<BIGZIPZ> we are so used to the impartial bbc news here in england that its a cultural experience watching the Fox channel on cable

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<davewiner> hey they’re making som egood jokes on CNN tonight

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<tmanternach> codyh: Hillary is going to win tonight

<dunnix> only 3% is in?

<codyh> tmanternach: of course, but it’s the margin that’s news.

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<danyork> It’s all about the margin.

<tmanternach> codyh: I know.

<davewiner> Paul Begala is a dickhead, not quite as bad as Joe Scarborough but pretty close.

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<BIGZIPZ> take a look at leo laporte on twit live, with his pipe, bless him

<agessaman> Donna Brazile, however, is very endearing tonight.

<mobile> Which channel is everyone watching?

<codyh> and let’s not forget that a significant number of delegates will be allocated later, not based on raw vote counts.

<tmanternach> davewiner: Paul is awesome! Even thought he is a Hillary supporter

<codyh> by later, i mean in the next 24-36 hrs.

<danyork> mobile: I’m watching CNN Live and MSNBC – both live over the Intenret.

<GabeW> what drives me nuts is that all the so-called democratic party talking heads they have on these networks are actually Clinton shills

<mobile> Also, can Hilary hold a double digit lead?

<danyork> exactly

<RussB> MSNBC.com has conflicting headlines… “too close to call” and “Clinton wins”

<tmanternach> it’s going to be 55 to 45, give or take a point

<RussB> to *early* to call, sorry.

<mobile> Yeah, Tom Brokaw called it a minute ago

<davewiner> CNN: 11 percent of the vote in — it’s 50-50. Oooooh. Hot damn!!

<agessaman> RussB: refresh, looks like they cleaned it up.

<EricaJoy> cnn loves their touch screens

<mobile> And it seems to be holding as the story with HRC at 10% lead

<mobile> MSNBC has 55% HRC and 45% Obama

<tmanternach> davewiner: where is that from? the website say 3% of the vote in

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<agessaman> Blitzer: “This race is going to be competitive.”

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<tmanternach> that 11% number was just in one city

<tmanternach> or county

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<codyh> tom brokaw looks old as hell.

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<agessaman> FN: 53/47 Clinton/Obama

<codyh> is he growing a moustache?

<davewiner> FoxNews projects Pennsylvania for HRC.

<mobile> Interesting number differences

<tmanternach> mobile: there are no differences, people are just confused

<GabeW> i don’t know about in PA, but early numbers here in CA tend towards the older (usually more conservative, though thats a generalization) voter..

<danyork> Now both MSNBC and CNN are showing 56 C and 44 O

<maslowbeer> retweet @nprnewsblog NPR predicts HRC will win PA

<danyork> It’s going to oscillate for a while here, methings.

<GabeW> danyork: ya think?

<GabeW> hah

<mobile> MSNBC just showed 57% for HRC

<mobile> On the old fashion TV screen.

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<maslowbeer> does PA have a caucus delegate count or is it just primary voters?

<tmanternach> just primary

<mobile> primary only

<codyh> but a chunk of the delegates are awarded proportionally based on democratic turnout in congressional districts.

<mobile> Not supers cody

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<mobile> PA’s Superduper delegates will vote with the winner

<agessaman> The pure primary, a system I can respect… as someone who participated in the district caucuses (second tier) in WA state, I have seen the light

about how undemocratic that methodology can be…

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<codyh> mobile: you think they’ll go with raw vote count rather than delegate count?

<danyork> With 5%, it’s back to 53% C, 47% O

<maslowbeer> agessaman, good point, except the caucus system protected the TX vote since it’s an open system and there were many HRC shows in dem primary who

were GOPs trying to swing it. caucus system saved the day there

<mobile> Cody they will go popular vote because Obama’s campaign has pushed the issue of going with the voters.

<danyork> MSNBC showing 52% C 48% O

<agessaman> maslowbeer: true — the first tier caucuses seem to be pretty egalitarian, the second tier was an exercise in excluding people who couldn’t

commit 5+ hours to voting.

<maslowbeer> agessaman, excellent point

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<maslowbeer> davewiner, I emailed the rockridge people asking what was up and why they couldn’t raise $ from some big donors

<mobile> It’s changing by the minute

<mobile> HRC 53%

<maslowbeer> they responded and admitted they perhaps didn’t have “fundraising expertise” but they did go everywhere they knew how

<noaml> nbc calls it for HRC too

<tmanternach> cnn called it for her

<noaml> msnbc rather

<mobile> I seriously doubt that she will deliver the double digit win

<danyork> CNN just called it for her

<tmanternach> that’s all of the big networks

<maslowbeer> how many reporting now?

<noaml> 5%

<danyork> MSNBC is showing 7% in

<GabeW> the flapping margin is seeming to settle a bit around 5-7%

<maslowbeer> that’s like calling a football game off the opening kick

<noaml> CNN calls it for HRC too

<GabeW> but we’re talking about a total of 150,000 votes so far

<agessaman> So, I pose the question they’re asking Russert tonight: what percentage spread does Clinton need to win the big victory?

<dunnix> maslowbeer: =) i like your optimism

<GabeW> thats below the turnout in a midsize city

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<maslowbeer> well they’re computer models are pretty damned accurate, except for the little gore fiasco

<anthropocentric> people still use IRC?

<tmanternach> aggessaman she just needs to win the state, even if it’s just a single % point

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<danyork> anthropocentric: a few, do.

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<maslowbeer> anthropocentric, hell yeah. still the best resource around methinks

<GabeW> ron paul is getting 15% haha

<anthropocentric> is mIRC still the best client?

<kirkk> Think if she wins by less than 10 it will be seen as good for Obama considering not long ago she was polling more than 20 points ahead

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<anthropocentric> …Or is there a newfangled Web 2.0 client like IRC chatr

<agessaman> tmanternach: So getting 49% of the “bitter, gun-clinging” voters to vote for Obama is a loss?

<tmanternach> kirkk: we will see it that way, but the media will see it as a win for her still

<tmanternach> agessaman: yes

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<maslowbeer> is PA an open primary or do you have to be registered to a party?

<kirkk> true… but the media just wants to string this out as long as they can no matter what happens or what the reality is

<danyork> maslowbeer: it’s closed – you have to be registered

<agessaman> tmanternach: statistically I agree, but cutting deeply into a 20% lead is a moral victory for Obama.

<tmanternach> kirkk: of course they do. they are getting millions of viewers, making millions of dollars

<tmanternach> agessaman: I’m with you. but we aren’t CNN/NBC/FOX

<kirkk> yep… good business if you can get it

<maslowbeer> tmanternach, why do you say that? the GOP has already bought the media outright

<agessaman> tmanternach: MSNBC is with us… but they have Keith Olbermann doing reporting tonight, and he actually makes sense, so that’s unsurprising.

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<tmanternach> agessman: they also have Chris Matthews

<agessaman> tmanternach: and Joe “I’m a smug-mofo” Scarborough

<tmanternach> yup

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<maslowbeer> retweet @nprnewsblog: Clinton Needs to Raise Money, Fast, to Continue http://tinyurl.com/4dz8gl

<agessaman> she has 9m COH, Obama has 42m

<agessaman> and her COH is padded by the fact that she has 1m+ in debts unpaid.

<tmanternach> i thought it was 10 million in debts?

<kirkk> and Obamas COH just went up by another $100

<agessaman> oops… apologies, missed the 0

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<agessaman> kirkk: that’s an excellent idea… brb.

<Heathercore> So, is this thing over, and now we’re on to Ind.?

<workingwriter> All depends on how big the margin is.

<tmanternach> if he can keep the margin below 10%, he will be alright

<workingwriter> Russert was saying his sources project anything from 5-12%

<tmanternach> it’s on to indiana anyways

<tmanternach> she won’t give up

<dunnix> whens indiana?

<domesticat> It’s an older, less hot version of the Terminator.

<tmanternach> 5/6 i think

<workingwriter> Indiana May 6

<greggh> HuffPo now has it at 55-45 with 10% in

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<mobile> If HRC comes out of PA with 10% margin she’s still in it.

<greggh> agreed

<agessaman> that’s a gain of 10-15 delegates (max)

<tmanternach> mobile: if HRC comes out of PA with a 1% margin she’s still in it.

<mobile> If she comes out with 5% it’s over.

<workingwriter> Thing is, Hillary has $10 mil in debt, and $9 mil in cash. Barack has $42 mil in cash, <$1 mil in debt

<mobile> tmanternach if she’s only 1% there will be no more money

<agessaman> we need to admit that “in it” is a matter of definition

<kirkk> I think if she lost she’d “still be in it” by her calculations….

<agessaman> She’s “in it” the same way that Huckabee was — the math says otherwise — but she’s welcome to run.

<mobile> I think she’d make a stellar VP

<maslowbeer> jon stewart asked obama if he was concerned hrc would still be campaigning in the general election if he won . . . lol

<greggh> nah, if she lost tonight I have no doubt she would call it quits

<Heathercore> I think she might have to be forceably removed from the race.

<agessaman> Heathercore: I think her husband has been trying — every time she’s ahead, he runs his mouth…

<maslowbeer> rumormill said that gore, dean and carter were going to ask her to step down a couple weeks ago, for the party

<mobile> Why should she be removed when she’s winning contests?

<mobile> That makes no sense.

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<agessaman> After May 6, she would need to win 80% of the delegates to have the lead at the convention.

<domesticat> Because mathematically she can’t pull it out w/o asking superdelegates to vote against the person who won the popular vote?

<maslowbeer> 10% reporting 55/45% H/O according to @nprnewsblog

<mobile> I think people overlook the positives of the nation being transfixed by the Dems race and ignoring McCain.

<tmanternach> how many times can this guy on cnn say “hillaryclinton.com”?

<codyh> mobile: because she’s crapping all over the party.

<mobile> I disagree codyh

<agessaman> mobile: We’re missing some awesome McCain gaffes that aren’t getting reported because of the Dem race

<Heathercore> Is that a positive, mobile. People ignoring McCain? He’s still the Republican nominee…

<mobile> She is clearly still a viable candidate.

<codyh> mobile: as is your right.

<mobile> Heathercore of course giving the Repubs less time to prepare their smear tactic is a positive thing

<mobile> They don’t know who they are running against

<maslowbeer> the rumormill story talked about gore and carter having huge party elder status and carrying a lot of weight

<maslowbeer> wish i could remember where i read it

<mobile> Do they fight on 2 fronts simultaneously?

<greggh> I’m very pessimistic about the general though, I actually believe that a good portion of the 26% of Hill supporters who say they will vote for

McCain, really will. I expect a McCain Presidency.

<mobile> Or do they wait.

<kirkk> mobile… I think HRC has already given the Repubs all the smear tactics they need to use against Obama

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<dunnix> greggh: Do you really think Dem voters will cross the party line, because of obama…. hes a good dem, right?

<mobile> Kirkk the Repubs don’t need any help with smearing

<greggh> dunnix: yes I really do take a lot of them at their word

<mobile> I’ve heard Repubicans say they will vote for Obama, I’ve heard Obama supporters say they will vote of McCain if HRC wins

<mobile> So who knows/

<mobile> ?

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<dunnix> hmm, you think voters crossing the party line is just out of bitterness, and not out of who they think would do a better job? shame

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<mobile> A brokered convention would be bad for the party, but a continuation of this campaign is not. Especially if it is warranted by how voters vote.

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<maslowbeer> and i’ve heard HRC supporters say they will go McBush if Obama wins . . . it’s all over the map

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<dunnix> lol

<kirkk> My wife says she’ll vote for McCain over Obama… which just seems crazy to me… I’d vote for HRC if she’s the nominee but considering how she’s run

this campaign I’d have to do it holding my nose

<mobile> Repubs have said that McCain “betrayed” them on imigration.

<maslowbeer> many Obama supporters are independents so they are unpredictible

<dunnix> maslowbeer: ah that makes sense

<mobile> There are many who will have trouble supporting the opponent of their choice

<greggh> some out of bitterness, and some out of the reasoning that some Clinton supporters are not prepared to move that amount to the left that they think

Obama represents

<mobile> But we need a Dem in office, period

<agessaman> I think it will depend on Obama’s VP selection

<weisen> I think that people may underestimate just how many people would not vote for a black man, even half black, in the anonymity of the voting booth

<mobile> Yes, that’s where McCain will hit Obama

<weisen> I hope that’s not true, but it sounds like it is

<mobile> Too far left

<maslowbeer> IMHO, obama could have been a lot more aggressive talking about iraq == shitty economy which would have put mccain on the defensive during

general even against HRC

<dunnix> Wasn’t obama considering the New Mexican guy for VP running mate?

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<mobile> The winning ticket is Obama/Clinton

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<maslowbeer> mobile, don’t tell that to @davewiner

<weisen> Maybe Clinton/Obama

<codyh> mobile: fat effing chance though, right?

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<davewiner> How about Clinton/Scarborough?

<kirkk> weisen: I’m afraid of that very thing myself… people will say what they think they “should” when asked that question but when nobody is watching

I’m afraid this country is not nearly as open-minded as I’d like to believe it is

<mobile> No not Clinton/Obama

<mobile> Obama/Cinton

<mobile>

<workingwriter> Obama/Clinton won’t happen.

<davewiner> Clinton/Clinton

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<codyh> well, hillary is looking more and more like cheney.

<dunnix> lol

<kogyaru> workingwriter: I completely agree

<mobile> codyh that’s absurd

<kogyaru> she’s oblitered any chances.

<berryhill> How about Obama/Ford

<agessaman> mobile: How would they work that out? “Sorry that I’ve impugned your heritage, church, friends, and choice of words… mind if I take shotgun?”

<kogyaru> um, obliterated.

<mobile> Why do you say it won’t happen? It would be a winner.

<weisen> @kirkk: it came up at dinner Saturday night as reported by the Texan side of my family. Freaked me out.

<mobile> You think Obama doesn’t want to win?

<kirkk> davewiner… a vote for HRC is a vote for a Clinton/Clinton ticket IMHO

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<berryhill> @kirkk: I agree…HRC in the White House makes Bill defacto VP

<mobile> agessaman the rhetoric hasn’t been so out of control that those things couldn’t be worked out. These are professional politicans

<kogyaru> HRC’s margin of victory seems to be getting slimmer

<workingwriter> mobile: Sure he does, so he picks some Southern white guy not named Edwards

<mobile> berryhill that’s McCain spin. Leave that sort of talk to them.

<greggh> I think Obama will make Hillary the VP. It would just be too stupid not to. Like mobile said said, the guy wants to win.

<mobile> workingwriter Which Southern white guy isn’t a Republican?

<kirkk> mobile: Me

<berryhill> mobile: Bill in the White House is not necessarily a bad thing…the Clinton years look better than where we’re at now

<kogyaru> heh. Clinton’s ahead by 75 to 80 percent in coal country. (counties)

<codyh> is there really any chance HRC would take VP?

<mobile> kirkk are you available for Obama’s VP opening?

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<kirkk> I suppose I could make time

<kogyaru> codyh: I personally doubt it

<kirkk> if asked nicely

<greggh> would Hill take VP?… IN A HEARTBEAT

<workingwriter> mobile: Well, if Sam Nunn were a little younger…

<mobile> Sam Nunn?

<mobile> yikes!

<mobile> Exactly greggh

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<mobile> She’s got voters that Obama needs

<workingwriter> Nunn actually endorsed Obama last week. I was floored.

<mobile> I’m hoping for an Obama/Clinton ticket

<davewiner> One thing to be thankful for. Joe Scarborough isn’t on MSNBC smirking right now. I can take Pat Buchannan.

<maslowbeer> AP reports HRC wins at least 28 delegates

<greggh> If she didn’t take VP then she would be gambling that Obama won’t win the general. While I think that’s a good bet. I don’t think she wants to take

that risk

<tmanternach> greggh: you think he would offer it to her?

<mobile> I don’t think McCain could beat an Obama/Clinton ticket

<codyh> mobile: couldn’t agree more.

<agessaman> agreed

<maslowbeer> who’s favored for mccain’s vp nowadays?

<greggh> yup, I think he will see that its his best chance to win

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<kirkk> greggh: I honestly that part of the reason HRC has run the kind of campaign she has is because if she isn’t the nominee she’d rather see McCain win

so she’s a viable candidate in 2012

<kogyaru> yikes

<kogyaru> that’s cynical

<mobile> kirkk that’s absurd

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<maslowbeer> kirkk, valid theory. however by then we’d have WW3 with Iran and probably find some new enemies to invade, like canada and australia or

something

21<mobile>21 maslowbeer I don’t think anyone cares who runs with McCain at the moment.

<mobile> Too busy watching the Dem race.

<tmanternach> did the man on CNN just swear?

<mobile>

<codyh> maslowbeer: recent HRC comments make it sound like she’s not entirely opposed to WW3 with Iran.

<kirkk> Well… those Canadians have been getting a bit uppity

<workingwriter> maslowbeer But Hillary wants to invade Iran, and whoever wins will probably continue threatening Venezuela.

<dunnix> codyh: only if iran nukes israel… which i don’t think will happen

<greggh> kirkk: I don’t disagree with you. But she’s covered both ways. The way she weakened Obama makes it more likely for McCain to win, but it also

pressures Obama into making her VP. I think she’ll take the VP sure thing than continue with the big bet

<maslowbeer> perhaps we could declare war on another galaxy or something. that would be cool

<mobile> codyh that’s the worst kind of Republican spin

<codyh> mobile: you caught me.

<maslowbeer> maybe bush is lord xenu

<mobile> She said that the US would support Israel if Iran took action against them.

<kirkk> I agree… it’s cynical… wish I didn’t feel that was as I was a big supporter or both Clintons in the past… but the things they’ve said and done

in this campaign have left me feeling that way

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<codyh> i just resent her militaristic pandering.

<agessaman> she has since clarified that statement and reaffirmed it

<dunnix> maslowbeer: I vote Andromeda with a name like that… its asking for it.

<mobile> Those statements are not pandering

<kogyaru> “obliterate” is a heavy-duty word

<agessaman> It strikes me as crazy to declare mutual defense sans treaty by presidential decree.

<maslowbeer> workingwriter, will obama is doing diplomacy a priori which is one of his foreign policy hallmarks IMO

<mobile> It’s a signal to Iran that a Dem president doesn’t mean we don’t use force when an Ally is threaten.

<maslowbeer> s/will/well

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<agessaman> I would hope that a Dem President would consider dismantling some of the powers that the Bush Whitehouse has inappropriately claimed.

<kogyaru> obama’s phrase for HRC’s comment was “saber-rattling”

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<kogyaru> and I agree on that one

<mobile> Spin, spin, spin

<kogyaru> agessaman: completely unlikely

<workingwriter> maslowbeer: Yes, but oil tends to make people crazy.

<kogyaru> a Dem prez won’t engage in “signing statements”, though, I’m pretty sure

<kirkk> agessaman: Amen!

<mobile> The Iran threat to Israel isn’t about oil.

<maslowbeer> i think a trillion $ thrown at alt energy R&D could accelerate things quite a bit

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<agessaman> kogyaru: indeed. Signing statements == big problem.

<greggh> to be fair to Hillary, the question put to her was about what would happen if Iran launched a NUCLEAR attack on Israel. I think it was entirely

appropriate for here to say what she said.

<workingwriter> maslowbeer: Believe it when I see it!

<kirkk> though I’m afraid that power is like a new tax… once you give it to a politician it’s hard to get it back

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<mobile> That’s one area that Clinton has a good stake in the ground. Green industry. I think Obama would like to add that to his policy position too.

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<workingwriter> Exit poll: only 53% of HRC supporters would vote for Obama in general.

<mobile> ^5 greggh

<maslowbeer> mobile, i think he has stated that as a policy position

<kogyaru> greggh: retalitating with nukes, in any circumstances, is horricially bad and would plunge the entire Earth in serious meterological havoc for a

few years.

<kogyaru> so, pandering to nuke scenarios is just bad policy

<mobile> He hasn’t talked about it as much or before HRC did.

<mobile> But again, the winning ticket is Obama/Clinton

<agessaman> One of my fears with Clinton is that she tolerates the Washington DC status quo — lobbyists, earmarks, and partisan infighting. Why not a

“signing statement” to go with that? Maybe some “national security” through invasion of privacy?

<mobile> Would make many things possible for the Dem party and if he wants to unify the party that would do the job.

<kogyaru> I’ll tell you one thing if any Dem prez engages in signing practices

<greggh> kogyaru: that’s really nice, and yeah no doubt nukes are very bad for the environment. But making it clear to your enemies at every opportunity that

will obliterate them if they use nukes is very good for the planet.

<kogyaru> a third party would once again be seriously considered

<kogyaru> s/signing practices/signing statements/

<kogyaru> greggh” what’s really nice?

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<kogyaru> (sorry, typo time)

<blogometer> Hello Adam.

<blogometer> @bigeasy

<maslowbeer> agessaman, i tend to agree with you on that re HRC status quo

<greggh> kogyaru: I was reponding to your comment about responding with nukes

<kogyaru> greggh: saying “that’s very nice” is not very nice when countering someone else’s argument.

<kogyaru> anyway

<mobile> Who said she used the word obliterate?

<agessaman> maslowbeer: I certainly submit that she would be superior to Bush… the question is how far away do we need to run to avoid the stench?

<mobile> She said we would “respond in force.”

<greggh> ok… then scratch the “very nice” part of what I said.

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<kogyaru> I won’t pretend to know anything about nuclear diplomacy, but man, it’s frightening, and I wish politicians understood the full weight of what

they’re conveying when they say “obliterate”

<maslowbeer> agessaman, agreed. yet my coffee cup collecting mold on my desk would be better than bush, so that’s not saying much

<greggh> mobile: she did use the word obliterate, and I think it was well used given the context

<kogyaru> we’ve had two generations of abject fear of nuclear fallout.

<mobile> greggh do you have the full quote?

<agessaman> maslowbeer: The coffee cup will probably receive more censure than Bush, unfortunately.

<greggh> mobile: but I’ll look for it

<kirkk> maslowbeer… let’s be honest now… the mold on that cup would be better than bush… but it’s kind of you to give him that much credit

<greggh> mobile: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2094904347351773345

<kogyaru> hm, the margin of victory looking like 8% so far

<mobile> kogyaru it’s going to be a few hours before we’ll know

<blogometer> kogyaru Link?

<kogyaru> front page of NY Times

<workingwriter> Just jumped to 55-45 with 41% in

<kogyaru> mobile: see above, and yeah, I agree

<kogyaru> if she wins by more than 15 percent, does she take all delegates?

<maslowbeer> kirkk, i’m feeling particularly generous

<agessaman> kogyaru: no, but the percentage increases dramatically.

<mobile> And it makes it easier for her to take PA superdupers.

<workingwriter> TVNewser says candidate speeches at 10PM Eastern

<mobile> All those in Congress have abstained until after the PA election results are in.

<maslowbeer> agessaman, what’s your twitter handle?

<kogyaru> they’re not waiting until closer to the convention?

<agessaman> maslowbeer: @adamrg

<mobile> No kogyaru they will declare after the PA results

<workingwriter> kogyaru: Dean keeps saying he wants all Supers to decide by June 3 (last primary)

<agessaman> I always forget to change my nick to match twitter when I get in these channels.

<kirkk> thanks agessaman… following now

<mobile> Yeah, no one seems to be listening to Dean

<dunnix> good luck guys… off to dinner, I’ll check back later

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<workingwriter> CNN: Back to 54-46, 45% in

<maslowbeer> agessaman, cool. following

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<kogyaru> for a lot of people, mccain gets the vote if either obama or clinton wins

<kogyaru> what I don’t understand is this

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<agessaman> maslowbeer kirkk same, thanks!

<kogyaru> mccain wants to be in Iraq forever

<kogyaru> isn’t this country dead tired of the war?

<greggh> it’s gonna be somewhere between 7%

<mobile> kogyaru which is why they should join on a ticket with Clinton as VP

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<kogyaru> (if this country’s dead tired of the war, why would they vote for a guy who wants to prolong the pain?)

<greggh> she’s not going to reach that psychologically important 10%

<kirkk> kogyaru… I believe it is… but I though that in 2004 also… don’t underestimate the conservative/religous groups ability to bring out voters

<mobile> It would be easier if it was either 10% or 5%

<maslowbeer> 33% reporting, 8 basis points apart

<kogyaru> yeah. I won’t forget 2004, either.

<mobile> The right is very unhappy with the Repub party. And so are conversatives.

<maslowbeer> retweet @nprnewsblog: clinton on her way to PA primary party

<workingwriter> kirkk: But the Religious Right isn’t going to turn out.

<kogyaru> my own mother plans to vote for mccain, even though she hates the war

<kogyaru> makes no sense

<danyork> maslowbeer: MSNBC now showing 47% in with 54% C, 46% O

<mobile> Interesting how the numbers move

<kirkk> workingwriter… we’ve though that before but don’t count on it… they are very good at getting people to the polls when it counts…

<mobile> The media will be thrilled to see it go on.

<kogyaru> yes, they will

<mobile> The Dems are dominating the airwaves so long as it continues

<mobile> McCain isn’t interesting even when he travels to Iraq

<kirkk> and there is a truly visceral hatred among the right to HRC… believe me… I grew up with them and work with them… they’ve been “warning” people

since Bill was President that HRC wanted to be President and they will mobilize if they see that happening

<mobile> Or jumps up and down to get attention.

<mobile> The only way HRC beats Obama is with a brokered convention.

<kogyaru> agree

<maslowbeer> kirkk, i can second that sentiment here in TX, though inner loop houston is very dem. suburbs are VERY gop

<mobile> But the real elephant in the room is MI and FL pre convention convention.

<agessaman> and a brokered convention will likely result in an Obama delegate walkout

<mobile> A brokered convention will mean a Clinton win

<maslowbeer> kirkk, i would love to take a page from the gop playbook, and build a wall around houston to keep the suburbanite “illegal” jackasses out of my

city

<greggh> I think the only way Clinton beats Obama is if Obama self destructs. I really think its out of Hillary’s control now. Only Obama can lose it at this

point.

<workingwriter> Obama on CNN: Moral victory at 45%.

<danyork> workingwriter: This is old tape (of Obama) earlier today.

<mobile> Doncha just love the spin, spin, spin

<maslowbeer> retweet @davewiner: No votes in yet from Philadelphia or suburbs. That’s where Obama is strong.

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<maslowbeer> great we have a jackass troll present

<mobile> Obama also said today that he wasn’t in PA to lose, he said, “I’m looking for 50 +1″

<workingwriter> kirkk: Sorry, had to step away for a minute. But I’m not at all convinced that anyone in the fundamentalist camp thinks McCain is their guy.

<kirkk> maslowbeer… know exactly how you feel… the Dems have never been able to play gutterball the way the Repubs have… they really have it down to an

art…

<kogyaru> maslowbeer: philly has 76% of vites in, per NYT front page

<kogyaru> er, votes.

<mobile> ignore it maslowbeer

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<maslowbeer> heh

<workingwriter> It’s true that they felt the same about Bush in 2000, but Rove persuaded them. McCain doesn’t have anyone to pull them aboard.

<kirkk> workingwriter… agreed… they’re not happy about McCain… but if he’s going up against HRC believe me… they’ll be able to mobilize huge numbers

to get out and vote for him

<maslowbeer> workingwriter, I thought he had rove?

<maslowbeer> workingwriter, in the wings anyway

<kogyaru> rove’s name is mud

<maslowbeer> kogyaru, and he’s very good at slinging it

<kogyaru> point

<mobile> Okay. Off to watch twitter now.

<workingwriter> maslowbeer: Talk about bad blood, I don’t see Rove getting active in this campaign in any fashion.

<workingwriter> Could be wrong though.

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<workingwriter> Hillary about to speak

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<greggh> workingwriter: the evangelical right might get a little worked up over defeating a lefty elitist. I think you will see the “bitter” comment getting

a lot more play than the Rev Wright thing by the Repubs in the general.

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<kogyaru> or “clinging”

<workingwriter> greggh: Yeah, I love it when the Repubs defend the “working man”

<maslowbeer> what exactly is the evangelical block in terms of %?

<kogyaru> fifteen, twenty percent?

<maslowbeer> sheesh

<kogyaru> wild-assed guess

<maslowbeer> that’s an indictment right there IMHO

<kogyaru> it’s a swing vote

<workingwriter> Keep in mind that “evangelicals” and “fundamentalists” are somewhat different.

<maslowbeer> true

<kogyaru> what’s the difference?

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<greggh> workingwriter: we all know that for the repubs it always about defending the praying and hunting man. I think Obama has made it easier for that to

be even more effective this go around.

<maslowbeer> i know some swinging episcopalians

<workingwriter> A lot of evangelicals are looking at global warming as more important than who marries who

<maslowbeer> then i guess i’ll rephrase my Q: what is fundie block in %?

<maslowbeer> you know, flat earth people and crap

<maslowbeer> yeah every episcopalian i know is an obama supporter, but that’s inside city limits so who knows

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<kogyaru> “Political scientist Kevin Phillips… estimates that 55 percent of Bush voters in 2004 believed in the coming of Armageddon”

<kogyaru> paha

<workingwriter> greggh: I think they’ll paint O as elitist in public, but press the race button hard in private.

<mib_sgah9w> wut

<mib_sgah9w> lol

<maslowbeer> kogyaru, well i believed it too, with him elected.

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<kogyaru> so, given 50% (+/- 1% ) of America voted for Bush in 2004

<workingwriter> …and here she comes…

<kogyaru> 55% of that number… believe life started in 4004 BC

<workingwriter> They’re playing some kind of funk tune to bring her on. I don’t know it.

<kogyaru> or am I confusing evangelists with fundamentalists?

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<kogyaru> evangelists believe in armageddon, and fundamentalists also believe dinosaurs are baloney?

<kirkk> If someone is more worried about global warming than who marries who then they are not an evangelical… I grew up with/among these people… Repub

pols put same-sex marriage on ballots just to bring out these people… that issue and the votes it brought out was a huge benefit to Bush in 2004

<maslowbeer> kogyaru, that’s fundies who think some white bearded dude created light a couple years ago

<kogyaru> okay, just getting my crackpots straight

<workingwriter> kogyaru: That’s a pretty good definition of fundies.

<agessaman> Ooh… Hillary speaks!

<workingwriter> kogyaru: Fundies think humans lived alongside dinosaurs

* dw_ watching from the uk

<kogyaru> (for the record, I’ve got religious friends, but they’re relatively sane)

<dw_> how bad is it that she’s broke?

<agessaman> -700k

<dw_> i dont understand your crazy fundraising rules

<agessaman> er… 1.3m — 9m COH, 10.3m debt

<workingwriter> dw_: That depends on who she can persuade to give her money

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<kogyaru> this “broke” thing is hard to gauge; is it measuring campaign or personal funds?

<agessaman> campaign

<dw_> campaign funds, no?

<kogyaru> didn’t perot use like 100 million bucks from his personal funds?

<agessaman> She could certainly write herself another cheque.

* maslowbeer thinks bill should endorse obama now and get it over with

<kirkk> I think that most religious people are relatively sane… not correct, but sane… but true “evangelicals/fundamentalists”… man… they’re just a

whole ‘nother level of crazy

<workingwriter> But she can contribute as much of her own money (and Bill’s) as she wants.

<agessaman> workingwriter: But every 5 million dollar contribution distances her a little more from the blue collar voters she needs so badly.

<maslowbeer> how do the matching rules from the public election $ work? i’m fuzzy on that

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<dw_> ha, “…promise of america” (crowd weekheartedly woos)

<kogyaru> ah, Perot spent $60MM of his own money in 1992

<workingwriter> agessaman: Well yes, but the blue collar unions are pretty much split between HRC and Obama.

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<maslowbeer> kogyaru, damn that’s a couple bucks

<workingwriter> Plus, Obama raises $1 million A DAY

<kogyaru> in 1996, Perot accepted the $29MM fed funds and corresponding limits

<maslowbeer> $40MM went to buy posterboard i think

<kogyaru> and $20MM to buy elevator shoes?

<maslowbeer> has perot endorsed anyone or hinted?

<workingwriter> maslowbeer: Neither Clinton nor Obama take public funding in the primaries.

<kirkk> My wife… the one who will vote for McCain if HRC isn’t the nominee… voted for Perot… should I be worried?

<maslowbeer> talk about his nafta sucking sound and what not?

<maslowbeer> workingwriter, gotcha

<agessaman> Someone needs to tell Clinton that “massive” is a measure of size, not quantity

<danyork> There’s the website mention!

<workingwriter> Now Hillary’s supporters chant “Yes we can!” ???

<agessaman> workingwriter: “Yes She Can”

<maslowbeer> someone issue a cease and desist on that

<danyork> workingwriter: “Yes She Can”

<workingwriter> OK

<agessaman> because evidently, by electing Clinton they get out of any personal responsibility to do anything.

<danyork> but the “She” versus “We” is an interesting difference

<andreslucero> howdy y’all. where’s a good place to watch online tonight?

<maslowbeer> agessaman, right. exactamundo . . . it seems HRC supporters don’t get that nuance, which is why perhaps they’re HRC supporters to begin with

<workingwriter> andreslucero: Twitter @VotePA and just about anywhere

<danyork> andreslucero: CNN Live is streaming: http://www.cnn.com/video/live/live.html?stream=stream1

<kirkk> good catch there… interesting…

<agessaman> maslowbeer: Exactly. If they were any less nuanced, they’d be republicans.

<maslowbeer> gop: “Tell us what to think.” HRC: “go do something” Obama: “it’s all our jobs to get to work.”

<andreslucero> thanks!

<workingwriter> maslowbeer: That’s the community organizer in Obama talking. Best thing about him.

<agessaman> I’m just glad she didn’t mention “green collar” jobs…

<agessaman> every time someone mentions “green collar” jobs, I try to figure out where that fits on the white/blue scale.

<dw_> did she just suggest she’ll cure cancer!?

<maslowbeer> retweet @technosailor another reason to dislike HRC. She just made my Twhirl crash

<GabeW> maslowbeer: yes, but be careful – obama can do that too

<workingwriter> No, just “attack cancer” and all those other things.

<greggh> I hope she’s not making up this story

<greggh> because now they’ll check

<GabeW> i’m looking forward to an amazing obama speech

<agessaman> greggh: did it mention snipers, or uninsured pregnant women?

<GabeW> remember his new hampshire speech?

<GabeW> after a loss

<workingwriter> agessaman: Soldier asks her to “keep fighting for us”

<agessaman> GabeW: I predicted earlier that Obama would lay down a barn burner tonight — he’s had six weeks to write a killer “we lost, but…” speech.

<greggh> I get a little nervous now everytime I hear Hillary talking about dangerous missions

<GabeW> agessaman: yah, he’s overdue for amazing us

<workingwriter> Hi GabeW! Yeah, I think you’re right.

<GabeW> though the philly race speech was one for the history books

<agessaman> GabeW: agreed

<andreslucero> any hope left that obama’s numbers will improve after Philly is counted?

<agessaman> Yes

<agessaman> TPM reports: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/190699.php

<workingwriter> 70% in now (ABCNews.com), still 54-46

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<agessaman> Did Hillary Clinton just repurpose someone’s wedding vows for those “might get knocked down… but if you stay with me…” lines?

<maslowbeer> pretty constant at 8 basis points the whole way it seems

<kogyaru> interesting

<workingwriter> “Live by the power of our ideals again” ?!?!?

<kogyaru> I’m personally betting on Clinton not conceding until the convention

<agessaman> Is Clinton a Ford?

<agessaman> She’s playing the song from the commercials

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<joshua-> Hi, everyone. Sorry I’m late!

<joshua-> Have I missed anything important?

<kogyaru> just a lot of wonkery

<workingwriter> We’re just having fun. HRC wins, apparently by about 8 points.

<GabeW> which is to say, she loses

<workingwriter> Obama about to speak, we’re about to kibitz

<joshua-> OUCH.

<joshua-> I was hoping for a squeaker to put an end to this.

<maslowbeer> is he streaming anywhere?

<berryhill> msnbc is streaming live

<workingwriter> cnn.com says they’re still “awaiting obama”

<GabeW> aren’t we all?

<workingwriter> Probably didn’t want a lot of repetition of “the networks all switched from HRC when Obama came on.”

<kogyaru> got a link to the MSNBC streaming video?

<joshua-> I actually would like a repetition of that, myslef.

<berryhill> http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/22886841#22886841

<kogyaru> thank you!

<greggh> If she doesn’t win Indiana BIG, forget about the Kitchen sink, she’ll throw in the toilet bowl. Because then all that’s left is to damage Obama as

much as possible, and I think she’s prepared to do that.

<berryhill> CNN website shows Obama won Philly 65% to 35% with 97% of Philly reporting so 8 point spread probably stand

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<berryhill> *stands

<workingwriter> and CNN’s switched to the Obama rally. Somebody’s talking about health care

<Ben_> so is irc the new twitter?

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<berryhill> no…twitter is the new irc

<dw_> Ben_: only for the last 20 years

<Ben_> tell me about it

<workingwriter> Well, twitter does seem to be holding up well tonight.

<Ben_> here’s something: I’m from New Zealand but I’m tracking the campaign closely. I’m very interested.

<Ben_> BUT I’m getting pretty bored with the H&O show

<kogyaru> if you type //info (depending on your IRC client) you’ll get a snootful of the IRC history text

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<greggh> a few modifications to your standard IRC server and viola… you have a great open source Twitter replacement.

<danyork> Watching CNN’s coverage of Obama’s headquarters… someone is speaking but there is no overlay saying who it is.

<danyork> Perhaps the governor of Indiana?

* dw_ heard what twitter was, and has since never even looked at it. buzz-infested NIH

<kogyaru> greggh: except I have occasion to type more than 140 characters on IRC

<workingwriter> Now they post it–he’s the mayor of Evansville, IN

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<kogyaru> but, yeah, you could cap it at that.

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<workingwriter> Jonathan Weinzappel

<Ben_> turner broadcasting plugin!? wtf?

<workingwriter> Ben_ yeah, it sucks! And no Linux client (surprise)

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<agessaman> wow, that was sweet: CNN went to commercial and faded right back in.

<andreslucero> oddly, i’ve had to install it on windows machines but not on macs

<andreslucero> the turner plugin, that is

<kogyaru> what’s the video format used by the turner plugin?

<kogyaru> can’t be completely proprietary.

<andreslucero> i think it’s a rebranded wmv player

<kogyaru> unless it’s spiked with DRM, I guess.

<kogyaru> ah

<workingwriter> …and Barack works the crowd with “This is our country”

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<maslowbeer> obama now streaming on msnbc.com – delayed?

<Ben_> CNN LIVE Video is not available in your geographic location

<workingwriter> …in the background. Damn Chevy ad.

<Ben_> AND the TBS plugin crashes my firefox

<maslowbeer> he’s just starting on msnbc.com

<andreslucero> ben_ where are you???

<Ben_> go CNN

<Ben_> New Zealand

<agessaman> workingwriter: same song at both rallies… must be a rustbelt thing. Although they did say that Mellencamp was actually at the Obama rally.

<Ben_> obviously we don’t matter

<greggh> I’ve been reading Dave Winer, Steve Gillmor, Robert Scoble, etc… for a while now because I’m very interested in social networking and “web 2.0″

but I’ve been consistently disappointed that all of the web 2.0 pundits hardly talk about free software.

<andreslucero> lame. try msnbc.com

<workingwriter> Ben_: try MSNBC: javascript:vPlayer(’22886841′,’ce6d575d-6e6a-40fd-b2d1-350347534dd7′)

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<greggh> I think they all have a big blind spot to Free software, open source, and Linux.

<Ben_> ooh I see a toothbrush ad

<workingwriter> Excuse me: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/22886841#22886841

<kogyaru> isn’t Dave’s software often freely distributed?

<agessaman> are we talking Free or free?

<Ben_> yay I can actually see Obama

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<Ben_> we care about him here in NZ believe it or not

<dw_> Ben_: if you get bbc news 24, its on there too

<agessaman> Ben_: glad to hear it

<dw_> (i assume at least australia has it)

<greggh> I just never hear any of them get excited by whats happeng in the free software world, and where free software is going to fit in the web in the

future.

<greggh> agessaman: I’m talking “free” as in “free speech”.

<dw_> greggh: uncle hick and his 8 year old wife don’t care about free software

<kogyaru> don’t forget cousin billybob

<agessaman> greggh: I think part of what you are seeing is that for some people software is just a tool, for some people it is an ideology.

<dw_> <BZZZT> rhetoric alarm!

<andreslucero> most people i talk to don’t know anything else exists

<kogyaru> so, yeah, 8 percent margin

<andreslucero> they use whatever software is on the computer when it came from the dell factory

<kogyaru> andreslucero: don’t know anything else besides opensource exists?

<workingwriter> greggh: Keep in mind that all this Web 2.0 stuff runs on free (speech) software.

<kogyaru> ahh

<Ben_> so how many delegates does H get over O? 3?

<agessaman> about 20 (ish) in PA

<Ben_> oh ok

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<agessaman> The math works out that she needs to win 80% of the delegates through June 3 to take the lead

<workingwriter> The “Web 2.0″ phrase came out of Tim O’Reilly, the leading publisher of free software books

<agessaman> And more like 90% in the states she’ll win.

<Ben_> not a chance

<workingwriter> …though definitely not free as in beer

<Ben_> I don’t get why she is thrashing a dead horse

<agessaman> Ben_: like a snowball in hell

<kogyaru> opensource is the move for the underpinnings (SDKs, core toolkits)

<agessaman> Note that Obama is brushing Clinton off like a speck of lint (“Congrats… now moving on…”) and going after McBush.

<andreslucero> i think the real shift toward supporting linux will come in 10 years when developing countries get online in great numbers.

<Ben_> having just watched charlie wilson, I’m reminded that someone needs a better plan than just “we need to leave”

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<maslowbeer> agessaman, yes now he’s going the aggressive route. he needs to stay there

<andreslucero> people who can’t afford $600 for an OS and word processor

<kogyaru> andreslucero: good point. the gestation period is measured in two decades, it appears, for Linux

<Ben_> go aggrobama

<andreslucero> he’s going after mccain, good move

<greggh> goodnite all

<agessaman> maslowbeer: aggressive against policies and programs — not against McCain personally.

<andreslucero> g’night greggh

<agessaman> That’s how he’s keeping it classy

<workingwriter> greggh: Pleasure to meet you

<agessaman> greggh: g’night, it’s been fun

<maslowbeer> agessaman, which is how he has been all along and is still a good tact imo

<greggh> yup, it was fun talking politics and tech while keeping civilized the whole time

<andreslucero> haha, i like the grin on his face when they started chanting

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<agessaman> maslowbeer: Agreed, not that it’ll stop me from pointing out that McCain divorced his tragically disfigured first wife — who waiting through his

time as a POW for him — to marry a richer woman who he was cheating with… but you all know that story.

<Ben_> jesus this guy actually sounds like he can change something

<Ben_> first time I’ve really watched him

<kogyaru> he’s got charisma

<andreslucero> ben_ you should check out some of his past speeches on youtube

<kogyaru> and diplomatic skills

<agessaman> Ben_: I recommend his speech on race

<workingwriter> Of course, it’s not “lobbyists” that are the problem–it’s the corporations they work for!

<andreslucero> specifically “a more perfect union”

<Ben_> I’ve read the quotes, but not watched

<Ben_> but isn’t he walking a dangerous line going against lobbyists?

<Ben_> it needs to happen, but how realistic is it.

<Ben_> looking from the outside it feels like US politics is fundamentally broken

<agessaman> Not really… the power they wield is dollars — and he’s pulling in more than 1m a day in small donations.

<kogyaru> aren’t most countries’ politics broken?

<andreslucero> well, he’s gotten this far on public fundraising

<John_Norris> Jon Stewart had Obama read a few random lines and instill them with hope…he did a good job with it.

<kogyaru> nice, john

<maslowbeer> Ben_, being beholden to big $ is part of the root cause of broken politics.

<maslowbeer> Ben_, with his tact, he won’t owe anyone any favors and can really do something for a change

<Ben_> agreed, but there is a huge vested interest in NOT letting him do it

<Ben_> entire industries

<John_Norris> Clip up at ComedyCentral

<andreslucero> just me, or is that larry david standing behind him on the right?

<agessaman> Ben_: luckily, those industries vote Republican

<kogyaru> maslowbeer: it’s been a while, but I thought I’d read he was beholden to some agrarian interests such as Archer Daniels Midland

<kogyaru> s/I thought//

<agessaman> Ben_: and they are siding with a very unpopular war, and an unmanaged economy

<workingwriter> agessaman: But how “small donations” are counted is part of the problem. How many people can cough up $100 for a campaign?

<kogyaru> he receives corporate funds, so I think this argument is going to be a relative one

<Ben_> *very* unpopular? isn’t it 50/50?

<agessaman> workingwriter: I’m a public school teacher and I’ve done that.

<Ben_> that’s what really pisses me off

<maslowbeer> Ben_, that’s what I love about him is he had the balls to take the huge gamble and bet on american people and grassroots fund raising, and he’s

won the lottery at it

<kogyaru> ben: what pisses you off?

<Ben_> 50% of the US seems to like the war in iraq. wttf is up with that?

<kogyaru> ah, that. I don’t believe that number.

<workingwriter> Ben_: No, it’s about 70% against the war right now.

<kogyaru> I think it’s really down to about 20 or 25%.

<maslowbeer> Ben_, that’s not true. that’s part of the gop spin machine working its magic

<kogyaru> yeah, close.

<agessaman> Ben_: Bush’s approval rating is 69% against — the highest since Gallup started keeping approval ratings in 1932

<Ben_> fair enough

<agessaman> 28% for, only 3% indifferent

<kogyaru> don’t conflate the numbers against the chimp with the ones against the war, though

<maslowbeer> Ben_, you can believe most of us are pretty pissed off

<Ben_> I was referring to the dem/gop split

<Ben_> which is fundamentally pro/anti “let’s go and fuck up other countries”

<berryhill> The spread has gone up to 10% with 84% reporting

<maslowbeer> Ben_, many gop voters against war believe me

<andreslucero> nooooo

<GabeW> 3 delegates net gain

<GabeW> HAHAHAH

<GabeW> pyrrhic victory if there ever was one

<John_Norris> 64% think the war is not in the US interest

<John_Norris> http://www.pollingreport.com/iraq.htm

<andreslucero> still not good

<Ben_> no? isn’t mccain keen on intervention and continuing in iraq?

<berryhill> The CNN delegate count isn’t counting the primary delegates yet

<agessaman> 32% of *republicans* disapprove of Bush

<berryhill> 10% would be a psychological win for HRC…she gets to say she won by double digits

<andreslucero> i notice barack didn’t mention pennsylvania at all

<kogyaru> mccain is for iraq war forever

<danyork> andreslucero: he did at the beginning, congratulating Clinton

<Ben_> but yeah, again, from an outside view:

<andreslucero> berryhill – exactly, it’s just another reason for her to continue her campaign

<Ben_> I really cannot understand in the slightest why HRC is carrying on

<Ben_> it’s bad for dems, bad for her

<andreslucero> ah, i guess i missed it

<Ben_> basically she’s saying “gee I hope we can lobby superdels hard enough to piss off the majority of dems”

<danyork> NY Times (who endorsed Clinton) has opinion piece out – “The Low Road to Victory” -

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/23/opinion/23wed1.html?ref=opinion

<agessaman> Ben_: She’s hoping Obama falls on his face.

<Ben_> how is that going to happen?

<maslowbeer> danyork, i thought nyt endorsed obama? or am i just smoking something

<andreslucero> her campaign funds are beyond drained, she can’t hang on forever

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<danyork> hmmm… I *thought* they endorsed Clinton

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<John_Norris> Kos sez “The NY Times editorial board, which remember endorsed Clinton:”

<danyork> http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/25/nytimes.endorses/index.html

<maslowbeer> John_Norris, ah. guess i’ll put down ganga bowl

<workingwriter> agessaman: Fair, but you’re interested in this stuff. I’d like to see a breakdown of where all this money is coming from. I was checking at

publicintegrity.org, but they haven’t issued any reports yet.

<John_Norris> hee hee

<agessaman> workingwriter: The Obama campaign was suggesting that their average donation was 170 dollars, and they’ve raised over 225m dollars

<workingwriter> Averages can be deceiving, of course.

<workingwriter> Stepping away from the machine for a few, but I’ll probably be back.

<andreslucero> oy, abother two weeks until the next primaries

<andreslucero> going to bed, see y’all next time

<Ben_> Isn’t it far too simplistic to compare H vs O stats to Either vs Mccain?

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<Ben_> It seems to be H’s tactic: I beat Obama in blue collar states, so I’ll beat Mccain in the same

<agessaman> http://www.electoral-vote.com/ — the map on this page is particularly instructive on how effective that strategy will be

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<maslowbeer> AP giving 38/24 delegates for HRC/Obama for PA with 85% reporting

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<dloo> Alright… why does twitter say to join here? what did i miss?

<maslowbeer> hah just said it, “another win for cable television tonight.”

<dw_> dloo: who’s twitter?

<dw_> whose twitter? hmm

<dw_> nope

<dloo> maslowbeer’s twitter feed

<Ben_> you missed not much

<maslowbeer> dloo, i’ll be posting whole chat log to my blog

<John_Norris> thx for the chat…until next time!

<maslowbeer> John_Norris, you bet!

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Intriguing, I thought, and hardly debatable. I usually read the really controversial stuff and would have typically passed this over completely but thought I would at least get the pulse of what diplomats had to say about the subject. So I clicked on the link. It was a decent account of what, again, seemed to be obvious. Quoted in the article was an excerpt from study by Quinnipiac University professor of public relations Kathy Fitzpatrick:

An overwhelming majority (88 percent) of more than 200 former high-ranking officers in the United States Information Agency who participated in the study said the U.S. is not diplomatically prepared to address ideological threats to U.S. interests in the 21st century …

More than 80 percent of the former USIA officers rated American public diplomacy efforts today as either “poor” or “marginal.” In contrast, more than 80 percent of the former USIA officers rated America’s public diplomacy efforts during the Cold War as “good” or “excellent.”

Sounds good – again, nothing earth shattering. Then I see the following thoroughly well thought out, insightful comment by our good buddy deek:

LOL, what else would we expect from Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates?

The center’s of Jihad are supposed to like us?

Sent by deek | 11:01 AM ET | 04-15-2008

Yeah, that got me out of bed. I went straight to the computer, before having any coffee or food (which is a very serious thing for those that know me), and hammered out the following response in 90 seconds:

Boy comments like deek’s show the ignorance and impudence of the neo-conservative’s school yard adolescent bully mindset. You may recall that we actually won the cold war, resoundingly in fact. If the Bushies were in office at the time we would have certainly started WWW3 and none of us would be alive because of it. Even during (failed) shows of force like the Bay of Pigs and crises like the Cuban missile crisis among others, diplomacy shows its deftness of in being able to obtain the net result desired, in spite of these failings. If we took a similar tact in the current terrorism threat, we perhaps could win the war of ideas necessary to ultimately make us safer and ultimately prevail; the current strategy (or lack thereof) is not only ineffective, it does quite the opposite, further fomenting “jihadism.”

It is becoming increasingly clear to me how collectively immature the Bush neocon ideology is. The pre-pubescent school yard bully is an appropriate metaphor. Do you actually want to accomplish greatness in your life and truly lead or is your ego so frail you have to constantly show everyone how bad ass you are? The true leader is one who can show force but never does. Ultimately the bully always ends up at the short end of the stick later in life. Let’s do our best to put the dark days of W behind us and have some intelligent, enlightened leaders do what’s necessary to actually protect our interests rather than continuing our current weak, pathetic, and insipid “war on terror.”

Sent by Sean | 3:38 PM ET | 04-15-2008

So I wasn’t shy and didn’t pull any punches. Even though I suppose I could have taken a few minutes to compose a more proper argument, I still stand by what I wrote. Just when I start to regain some hope about the human condition, I read or hear this type of crap spewing out of some jackass’ mouth and my cynicism resurfaces.

As an inherently progressive species, it appears there are still those amongst us who want to divide us and hold humanity back for their own gain or sense of self worth. I will be writing a lot more about this and other political hot buttons in the coming weeks.

I will forever be optimistic, but it is certainly up to us to pave the way for change. I’m finding in my reading and discussions with other progressives that it is imperative we begin speaking out on our values and vision for America. That is the only way we can reclaim this nation from the grips of the insidious neocon spin machine.

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American politics sucks, doesn’t it?

C’mon, face it–you know it does. You know ’cause you’ve experienced it your whole life. You (and I) have made a career out of sitting there watching in helpless astonishment as dweebs like Mike Dukakis and John Kerry stood by hopelessly looking on in election after election, while crypto-fascist punks like Dick Nixon and Little Bush handed them their lunch. Only then to go on and rack up nearly as much damage in the world as imaginable, while using hate and divisiveness to maintain support at home. Right?

Your whole life teaches you that to be a progressive in America is to make Sisyphus look like a slacker. Hey, at least he got to the top of the mountain once in a while! Even if it was all for naught, that’s still a lot more than we’ve been getting across the better part of a lifetime. Right?

And yet …

Maybe–just maybe–the long regressive winter of American politics is coming to a close. And maybe–just maybe–it is doing so with the extra kicker of a righteous wrath bringing its fury down on those most deserving of a generation’s worth of rage and contempt.

If you think I’ve gone off my rocker into a naive Wonderland so absurd that it would make Neville Chamberlain squeamish, try on this little thought experiment to see what I mean. Cast yourself back to the dark days of 2003 or 2004. The country has gone off on some 9/11-induced mass hysteria making Salem look like a picnic. The dumbest and the meanest amongst us are in charge. They are telling palpable, demonstrable lies about imaginary enemies, and the public is rallying behind their insane plans for Armageddon (in some cases quite literally), even (s)electing them for a second term. Their job approval ratings have skyrocketed to 90 percent. They are demonizing as traitors anyone who even feebly disagrees with them, even as they shred every major provision of the Constitution all claim to revere. And very few do dare to disagree with them–certainly not leaders of the completely misnamed opposition party. They are on a roll, fueled by a religious-like (and religious) fervor, and it looks like there is no end in sight. Remember?

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